Scenario Analysis

Scenario Analysis provides pragmatic tools to quantitatively evaluate airborne infection risk for use in schools, daycare centers, offices, at industry locations, retail stores, home, medical treatment centers, etc.


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CovidReduce – Scenario Analysis will provide pragmatic tools to quantify airborne infection risk for use in schools, daycare centers, offices, at industry locations, retail stores, home, medical treatment centers, and other locations. Tools will include quantitative infection modeling, AI empowered advice, and automatic presentation and report writing tools to identify strategies that can typically result in 10-100x reduction of risk for users. These concepts and tools can be learned and used quickly (within four hours) by people with basic spreadsheet skills to generate comprehensive assessments, and formal presentations and reports automatically.

In the scenario analyzer, you are able to input your activities with corresponding measures such as room dimensions, event duration, event frequency, masking condition and so on, and the analyzer will calculate the estimated infection risk for your situation. Then you could use our recommended risk reduction rules to change your situation to reduce the infection risk. The reduction rules include but are not limited to: 1. Skip high risk activities or do outdoor activities. 2. Use high quality masks when masking is possible. 3. Improve ventilation when not masked. 4. Keep pods separated when not masked. 5. Use good hand hygiene and keep six feet of distance when possible. You can find more details in the introduction video. Some scientific details behind the scenario analyzer can be found here.

DISCLAIMER: The CovidReduce Scenario spreadsheets and the other tools are made available on an as-is basis without guarantee or warranty of any kind, express or implied. Neither the authors nor reviewers accept any liability resulting from the use of these tools or their documentation. These are decision-support tools that are based on the science surrounding airborne transmission of the original SARS-CoV-2 and not the recent emerged strains. There is no "safe Covid exposure". You can use the spreadsheets and the other tools to determine what actions dramatically reduce risk to a low level if a spreader is present. Implementation of CovidReduce scenarios spreadsheets and the other tools and interpretation of their calculations are the sole responsibility of the user.